An incident in Tovuz region of Azerbaijan is the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning

or nodes of intent in Tovuz ...

Analysis with Shahin Alioglu

Political observers and experts in Azerbaijan explain the start of hostilities towards the Tovuz region with lonely logic.

To the question “Why did military operations begin not in Karabakh, but along the Azerbaijani-Armenian border?”, The answer is simple. This is the intention of official Yerevan to actively involve the CSTO and, indirectly, Russia into the conflict. In other words, if Yerevan does not receive an adequate response from its allies, then Pashinyan will have the opportunity to change the political course of Armenia. Indeed, recently tensions between the Kremlin and the Pashinyan team have peaked. But ...

... But the conclusion we draw from our analysis is slightly different.

Not excluding the possibility of the above, we tried to look at events from another window.

The reality is that official Moscow was and is in conflict anyway. Since there is a Russian military base in Armenia. Official Moscow always somehow provides political and military support to its ally. But if we mean the military intervention in Azerbaijan directly from the Russian territory, such a step would be risky and suicidal for the Kremlin.

So then, what is the logic of the escalation of hostilities in Tovuz?

Of course, the first reason is the attempt of Pashinyan and his team to represent Azerbaijan before the world community as an aggressor. And on this basis, to mobilize the forces of the CSTO against the "aggression" of which it is a member.

According to official Yerevan, even the smallest step of the Azerbaijani army towards Armenia will give it a serious justification. And the achievement of such political success will be the key to military victory. Such speculation can easily be seen in many Armenian media and statements by Armenian officials. Because each statement emphasizes that it was Baku that resorted to provocation and that the Azerbaijani military created tension on the border.

Of course, another reason is the tension in connection with the socio-economic situation in Armenia.

Pashinyan, with great promises, came to power. But in the end, the collapse. Having resorted to such provocations, distracts the attention of the population from the main problems. But, nevertheless, the question arises: what is the logic of opening a new front on the border, if Karabakh is at hand?

The fact is that the news of the ceasefire violation in Karabakh no longer bothers people. But by attracting tension to the border, it is possible to increase public concern about the war and distract the attention of the population from real problems. Apparently, this is what Pashinyan wants to do. Because he believes that in any case, Russia will not allow the Azerbaijani army to advance deep into Armenia.Therefore, any provocation on the border will work in the interests of official Yerevan, both domestic and foreign policy.

The Prime Minister of Armenia also perfectly understands that people need the “adrenaline of victory”.

The crushing victory of the Azerbaijani troops in April 2016 has not yet been erased from the memory of the Armenians. Thus, on the one hand, the image of a “brave Armenian military” is created, which valiantly fights with the Azerbaijani army, thereby trying to erase the April defeat from the memory of the people, and on the other hand, it is emphasized that the state is in the hands of a strong government.

But that's not all...

A thorough analysis of the Armenian media shows that the incident at the border can also be attributed to the Armenian military, who are closely connected with Russia and do not like Pashinyan.

From a number of details we can conclude that this time as the leader of Armenia, Moscow wants to see a military man who will be faithful to Russia. In other words, the Kremlin intends to put an end to the threat that Pashinyan poses with his pro-Western policy.

It is no secret that Armenia and Pashinyan are different things for Russia.

Armenia, a country that is a strategic point of Russia, which Moscow cannot refuse. But at the same time, for Moscow it does not matter who becomes its vassal. After all, the main thing is not a name, but devotion.

As for Karabakh, direct Russian military intervention is excluded here. In case of resumption of the war, nothing threatens Azerbaijan. After all, Baku will ensure its territorial integrity on the basis of the norms recognized by international law.

If so then, any indirect support from Russia to Armenia will not save her.

In Moscow, everyone understands this very well, so they are trying to shoot two birds with one stone. That is, using the Azerbaijani-Armenian tension at the border, he is trying to change power in Armenia and send additional troops to the South Caucasus, under the guise of a peacekeeping force.

By the way, the senseless anti-advertising of a number of Armenian generals on Azerbaijani websites and social networks is not clear. That is, the advertisement of the future owner of Armenia. This is what it means, without knowing, to dance to the tune of the Kremlin !!!

In any case, the incident in Tovuz may be the beginning of the end and the end of the beginning.